Abstract

This study examines the critical role of trade facilitation in enhancing food security in Jordan, a country where 90% of essential food items are imported. Despite being a regional leader in implementing the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA), Jordan faces persistent challenges due to logistical inefficiencies, institutional fragmentation, and high agricultural trade costs. Using Causal Process Tracing (CPT), the research evaluates how trade facilitation measures impact food security, while identifying systemic bottlenecks that undermine their effectiveness. The findings reveal that while Jordan has made significant progress in digitalization and procedural reforms, structural barriers—such as protracted clearance times for perishable goods, underdeveloped cold chain infrastructure, and maritime connectivity deficits—limit the TFA's potential. Non‐tariff measures (NTMs) further exacerbate delays and costs. The “Hoop test” confirms that trade facilitation is necessary but insufficient alone in Jordan; complementary policies, such as institutional consolidation through a Single Window system, logistics modernisation, and regional cooperation on Mutual Recognition Agreements (MRAs), are essential to strengthen resilience. The study concludes with targeted recommendations: (1) accelerating digital integration and NTM reform to streamline agricultural trade; (2) expanding port capacity and cold chain infrastructure to reduce spoilage; and (3) diversifying trade routes to mitigate geopolitical risks.

Abstract

The Ukraine war has led to a severe global food crisis due to complex supply disruptions and price increases of agricultural inputs. Countries of the Middle East have been directly affected because of their high dependence on food imports from Russia and Ukraine. Furthermore, this food crisis comes at times of high baseline vulnerability due to the compound impacts of COVID-19, repeated food shocks, and weakened states due to political-economic difficulties. This paper provides a detailed analysis of the food-related vulnerability of Middle Eastern countries in the wake of the Ukraine war. It contextualizes the varying impacts of this crisis in the region, and highlights country-level response strategies. The analysis shows a concerning and deepened crisis in the case of highly exposed and politically fragile countries with weakened food sectors; e.g., Lebanon, Sudan, and Yemen. Political-economic instabilities, limited domestic agriculture, and the lack of reliable grain reserves have aggravated the current food crisis in some countries. At the same time, indigenous short-term responses related to regional aid and cooperation have emerged, particularly in the Gulf countries, which have witnessed soaring revenues from higher energy prices. Alongside more regional frameworks for collaboration on food security, future action to mitigate such food crises should include the strengthening of local sustainable agriculture, storage capacities, and grain procurement strategies from international suppliers.

Abstract

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has severely impacted global food security. This may increase the risk of supply chain disruption in low-income countries that rely heavily on grain imports. This study used production and trade data for wheat, barley and maize from 1995 to 2021 to construct longitudinal trade networks. On this basis, a cascading failure network model of shock propagation was used to identify the direct or indirect dependence of other countries on grain exported from Russia and Ukraine and the impact caused by trade shocks. The results revealed that the interruption of grain exports from Russia and Ukraine has resulted in an increasing impact on the global grain trade year by year and that the wheat trade is the most vulnerable to shock propagation, but it is also the most resilient. Russia and Ukraine interrupt exports of grain, causing more than 50% reduction in direct imports to 30 countries, including Eritrea, Seychelles, Kazakhstan and Mongolia. A shock propagation model that considers indirect dependence yields divergent results, with lower middle income (LM) countries in North Africa, Southeast Asia and West Asia facing supply shocks from reduced imports because they are unable to fully exploit the trade channels to balance grain supply and demand. Under the COVID-19 pandemic, this indirect dependence on imports is more prominent. It is worth noting that Eastern and Southern European countries often act as intermediaries to spread shocks during cascading failures. In the process of shock propagation, the main suppliers of grain include the United States, Canada, France, Argentina and Brazil. After the outbreak of COVID-19, the import demand faced by Australia increased significantly. We also examined how nodal characteristics relate to shock propagation dynamics and country vulnerability, finding that high import diversity, low import dependence and regional characteristics are effective in buffering countries from supply shocks. This study contributes to our understanding of the external supply risks for grain arising from the Russia-Ukraine conflict in a pandemic context, highlights the issue of accessibility in food security and provides trade policy recommendations to mitigate national vulnerability to food insecurity, thereby creating a resilient food trade system.

Abstract

In this article, the impact of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on food security in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is analyzed. With Ukraine being recognized as one of the major global grain producers and exporters, the conflict is seen as posing a significant challenge to MENA countries, which are heavily dependent on grain imports from Ukraine. The importance of global linkages in food supply chains and their influence on regional food security is highlighted in this context. Utilizing secondary data from 2002 to 2021 obtained from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the study focuses on demography and food security, analyzing how these factors intertwine with grain export dynamics. The escalating hostilities have disrupted transportation routes, damaged infrastructure, and hindered logistics, resulting in substantial export volume reductions. Geopolitical tensions have exacerbated these effects, diminishing confidence among MENA grain importers. The study highlights how these disruptions have influenced global supply chains, prices, and agricultural product availability, with a specific focus on the MENA region’s challenges in food security, compounded by conflicts, climate change, and import dependence. A detailed demographic analysis reveals the impact of population changes on food demand and distribution, offering insights into how population growth and urbanization, alongside shifts in malnutrition and obesity rates, affect food security. The study concludes that the MENA region’s increasing reliance on food imports, coupled with climatic and political variabilities, underscores its growing vulnerability to global supply chain disruptions and the need for robust strategies to address these challenges.

Abstract

Abstract Subject and purpose of work In recent years, global food systems have faced challenges like disasters, extreme weather events, and market fluctuations, such as the Ukraine-Russia conflict. This study analyses strategic crop reserves, specifically for wheat and rice, in Arab countries. It examines the objectives and obstacles associated with these reserves. Material and methods different statistical methods have been used, including regression analysis and neural network prediction models. Results Findings reveal significant agricultural production deficits in Arab economies. However, some countries maintain substantial crop reserves. We found an inverse relationship between wheat reserves and wheat prices. Additionally, energy prices correlate positively with agricultural commodity prices. Forecasting models anticipate short-term global grain stock stability but predict short-term increases in agricultural price indices (until 2024) followed by long-term decreases (by 2030). Conclusions Policymakers should support agricultural strategies, particularly for strategic crops. To address current challenges, we suggest securing long-term contracts for strategic crops, diversifying suppliers, and avoiding reliance on a few sources.

Abstract

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has seen remarkable population growth over the last century, outpacing other global regions and resulting in an over-reliance on food imports. In consequence, it has become heavily dependent on grain imports, making it vulnerable to trade disruptions (e.g., due to the Russia-Ukraine War). Here, we quantify the importance of imported grains for dietary protein and energy, and determine the level of import reductions at which countries are threatened with severe hunger. Utilizing statistics provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), we employed a stepwise calculation process to quantify the allocation of both locally produced and imported grains between the food and feed sectors. These calculations also enabled us to establish a connection between feed demand and production levels. Our analysis reveals that, across the MENA region, 40% of total dietary energy (1,261 kcal/capita/day) and 63% of protein (55 g/capita/day) is derived from imported grains, and could thus be jeopardized by trade disruptions. This includes 164 kcal/capita/day of energy and 11 g/capita/day of protein imported from Russia and Ukraine. If imports from these countries ceased completely, the region would thus face a severe challenge to adequately feed its population. This study emphasizes the need for proactive measures to mitigate risks and ensure a stable food and feed supply in the MENA region.

Abstract

In 2016, the People’s Republic of China removed its support prices for maize and started destocking its large public reserves of maize. This paper investigates what would happen if China were to also eliminate its support prices for rice and wheat and reduce its public stocks of these two commodities. The analysis examines domestic and international market impacts over the next ten years by comparing a baseline (or business-as-usual scenario) with three scenarios that each assume support prices are eliminated but incorporate different assumptions about China’s import policies. To account for the uncertainty about China’s actual stock levels, the baseline and three scenarios are conducted under a minimum and maximum stock level assumption. The results show that the impacts will be most pronounced during the first years when temporary public stocks are depleted, with strong drops in domestic prices and reduced production. Over the medium term, domestic prices are projected to recover but will remain below baseline levels. The analysis also shows that even though the actual size of stocks has no significant impact over the medium term, its impact can be substantial during the first years a new policy is implemented, which underscores the importance of transparency when reporting on stock levels and stockholding policies.